Abstract:

A 5-stage-structured mathematical model (UDI: R4.x261.232:0001) was used to examine the sensitivity of recovery time after a time-varying environmental disaster. As a test case, stage-specific survival and transition rates, and annual fecundity values for the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales were used to model the recovery rates after environmental disaster impacts on population survival. This analysis allows for the examination of the relationship between the DWH oil spill and the sensitivity of sperm whale population recovery to pre-disaster or biologically relevant levels with changes in the initial population structure and size, vital rates, and event severity.

Suggested Citation:

Azmy Ackleh, Tingting Tang. 2017. Population recovery sensitivity and extinction probability after the impact of an environmental disturbance using a 5-stage-structured mathematical model. Distributed by: Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Information and Data Cooperative (GRIIDC), Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi. doi:10.7266/N7125R3R

Publications:

Ackleh, A. S., Caswell, H., Chiquet, R. A., Tang, T., & Veprauskas, A. (2018). Sensitivity analysis of the recovery time for a population under the impact of an environmental disturbance. Natural Resource Modeling, e12166. doi:10.1111/nrm.12166

Purpose:

This dataset was created to assess population dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Data Parameters and Units:

time (years from initial impact at time 0), population size, changing stage (1-calves, 2-juveniles,3-adults,4-mothers,5-post-breeders), elasticity (percent), epsilon range (reduction rate), sigma (vital rates), t critical (years; time of impact), magnitude of reduction, mean recovery time (years), sensitivity (unit), magnitude of reduction, extinction probability

Methods:

All modeling codes were generated using Matlab software and data were exported to Excel spreadsheet

Individual Files: