Abstract:

A 5-stage-structured mathematical model (UDI: R4.x261.232:0001) was used to examine the recovery probabilities of a population after a time-varying environmental disaster. As a test case, stage-specific survival and transition rates, and annual fecundity values for the Gulf of Mexico sperm whales were used to model the lethal (reduction in survival rate) and sub-lethal (reduction in fecundity rates) impacts on population survival given demographic stochasticity. This analysis allows for the examination of the relationship between the DWH oil spill and the probability of population recovery to pre-disaster or biologically relevant levels under two conditions: probability of recovery in 10 years or 20 years post-disaster.

Suggested Citation:

Azmy Ackleh, Tingting Tang. 2017. Population recovery probabilities using a 5-stage-structured mathematical model and demographic stochasticity. Distributed by: Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Information and Data Cooperative (GRIIDC), Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi. doi:10.7266/N7TT4P1C

Publications:

Ackleh, A. S., Chiquet, R. A., Ma, B., Tang, T., Caswell, H., Veprauskas, A., & Sidorovskaia, N. (2017). Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling. Ecotoxicology. doi:10.1007/s10646-017-1813-4

Purpose:

This dataset was created to assess population dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Data Parameters and Units:

Continuous recovery function (CRF), epsilon range (reduction rate), t critical range, population recovery after 10 years (recover_prob_srf_TC10; probability from 0 to 1), population recovery after 20 years (recover_prob_srf_TC20; probability from 0 to 1), population recovery (recover_prob_crf; probability from 0 to 1) Dataset supports publication: Ackleh, A. S., Chiquet, R. A., Ma, B., Tang, T., Caswell, H., Veprauskas, A., & Sidorovskaia, N. (2017). Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling. Ecotoxicology, 1-11. Stochasticity_Simulation_share.xlsx: Sheet 1: Figure 2. RecoveryProb_epsilon.xlsx: Sheet 1: Figure 3. Sheet 2: Figure 4. Sheet 3: Figure 8. RecoveryProb_Tcritical Sheet 1: Figure 5. Sheet 2: Figure 7. Rec_time_3d.xlsx Sheet 1: Figure 6.

Methods:

All modeling codes were generated using Matlab (*.m file extension) software and data were exported to Excel spreadsheet

Individual Files: